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Will the United States Become a Bond Haven in 2019?

With Italian bond yields rising quickly from 2 percent to 3 percent since the middle of 2018, it begs the question if the United States will become a bond haven. There are many reasons why the United States Bond Market has the potential to became a refuge for many global investors.

According to a 2016 paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research, safety is in the eye of the beholder – in the case of the global markets, it’s the investor. When there are global economic worries, the paper credits a “nowhere else to go” theory for investors that choose U.S. debt versus others. Along with a country’s ability to handle its own debt, the National Bureau of Economic Research found that even if a country’s “fiscal position deteriorates,” its debt is more attractive as long as the country’s fiscal health is in better shape than others, relatively speaking.

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